A new report outlines a warmer, wetter future for Newfoundland and Labrador, and one in which its northernmost community’s weather will nearly match that of St. John’s, far to the southeast.
The climate statistics contained in the 2021 Vital Signs report are compiled from 12 different projections, including a mix of government and academic data. That compilation shows that Labrador — in particular its northern coast — will be far warmer by 2100.
“There’s a bit of a range, but even in the lower projections, it’s quite dramatic,” said Rob Greenwood, the director of Memorial University’s Harris Centre, which releases the Vital Signs report annually.
Greenwood pointed to Nain, the northernmost year-round settlement in the province, as one example. Its current average winter temperature of –15 C, he said, will by 2100 rise to –5 C, a 10-degree difference that is “really significant,” and only 1.5 degrees cooler than St. John’s in the winter.
“Nain’s temperature will be nearly identical [to St. John’s] in summer,” Greenwood told CBC Radio’s Labrador Morning on Monday.
In the shorter term, by 2050, Nain will have four times as many thaw days in April as the present, he said — a huge problem to people who use the ice as a highway for months on end.
That statistic comes on the heels of a scanty ice season in 2020-21, where the ice set in five weeks late and Environment Canada records were shattered. Experts have said last winter could be a snapshot into what could be the average by 2050.
“As we know, the ice is such a key part of transportation and way of life for people on the Labrador coast,” said Greenwood.